The Census is in!

[BrushStart]

Essentially all of the fastest-growing districts are in inland areas south of the Mason-Dixon line, or are west of the Continental Divide. Many are in areas that demographers describe as ‘exurbs’: newly developing areas that are located relatively far — perhaps a 30- or 60-minute drive — from cities like Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, Charlotte or Atlanta, and that attract an upscale mix of commuters, families and retirees.

Yes, but for how long? Without calling it a fad, I think the rapid, sprawling growth of the South/Southwest is a temporary trend that will reverse once those low tax states realize that it is unsustainable. Nevada, the fastest growing state is already the highest unemployment state, and has rapidly growing financial, social, and natural resource problems. I lived there this summer, and trust me, things are not pretty.

[eastjohn]

My guess 905,001

With Michigan being the only state to lose population, the city of Detroit has got to be well under 800,000 people.Would not surprize me to see it at 695,000.

[BrushStart]

With Michigan being the only state to lose population, the city of Detroit has got to be well under 800,000 people.Would not surprize me to see it at 695,000.

Yeah, I think it could be as low as 607, not thousand, actually 607 total persons... Give me a break. There's no way it is as low as 695k. The ACS 5-year data recently reported Detroit at 916,000. If they were off by 200,000+ people, that would be ridiculous.

[kraig]

For all of you hoping that Conyers loses his seat. Remember, if they somehow combine most of Detroit for one seat, it's probably Hansen Clarke who would get the short end of the stick.

[eastjohn]

Yeah, I think it could be as low as 607, not thousand, actually 607 total persons... Give me a break. There's no way it is as low as 695k. The ACS 5-year data recently reported Detroit at 916,000. If they were off by 200,000+ people, that would be ridiculous.

The ACS number for Michigan's population for 2010 was: 10,039,208 The actual number released today is: 9,883,640. I wouldn't hold much weight with the ACS numbers.

[Gistok]

Michigan [[along with Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Missouri, Iowa and Louisiana) is losing 1 House seat.... but Ohio and New York are both losing 2 House seats.

[princealbert]

North Carolina and Georgia will pass Michigan within the next two years.

They'll be looking at the Great Lakes for fresh water when they have their next drought.

[eastjohn]

They'll be looking at the Great Lakes for fresh water when they have their next drought.

They will just take the water. Michigan will not have the population to stop it.

[Gistok]

They will just take the water. Michigan will not have the population to stop it.

That's the nice thing about an "international" treaty with Canada.... they can't just "take".... plus the cost of building a pipeline.... if you think Ohio is obstinant about High Speed Rail thru their state.... just wait til someone tries to put a pipeline thru their state!

[Don K]

Republicans like creating majority-minority districts, because they concentrate Democratic votes in as few districts as possible. So my guess is when it all settles out there will be two Detroit-based, majority-black districts, with one of them extended out across Eight Mile to Southfield and Oak Park if necessary.

My guess for eliminating a district would be to consolidate the districts of Levin and Peters by extending Levin's district [[minus Southfield and Oak Park) through the Bloomfields [[Hills, Township, and West) and Birmingham to Pontiac. This sets up either a primary fight or Levin's retirement [[he'll be 81 before the next election).

Now if they want to go for a home run [[and they will if they can), the Republicans could try carving up Kildee's district, splitting Bay City, Saginaw, and Flint among the neighboring districts. Remember ten years ago when MI also lost one district, the Republicans eliminated three Dem districts and created two new Rep districts. The Republicans won the election, they have all of the power, and they'll take whatever they can get [[as would Democrats if they were in the same position).

[Ocean2026]

Brushstart- remember millions of Texans voted against Bush- stereotyping is for small minds - Hating all Blacks all southerners all attorneys or whatever shows little ability for thought. I voted for Obama and am inclined to vote for him again, although a bit less excited.

You can't really blame people like me who originally lived in the north for enjoying today and its 72 degrees on the ocean. I don't like state income tax, and hate car traffic, and like to be able to leave my doors wide open if I leave the house in a rush.

OH well considering all that I guess you would hate me-- too f--king bad LOL

[Ray1936]

That's the nice thing about an "international" treaty with Canada.... they can't just "take".... plus the cost of building a pipeline.... if you think Ohio is obstinant about High Speed Rail thru their state.... just wait til someone tries to put a pipeline thru their state!

Ohio folks would be tapping in to any water pipe line going through their state like Nigerians on a gasoline pipe line. There are only 17 lakes in the whole state, all created by damming small rivers [[not counting Lake Erie): we all know it's a wasteland.

On the other hand, they don't wash up very much, so perhaps I'm overstating things......

[pffft]

They'll be looking at the Great Lakes for fresh water when they have their next drought.

I'm wondering how it will all shake out when these Southwest and western states start running out of water.

[eastjohn]

I'm wondering how it will all shake out when these Southwest and western states start running out of water.

It's very telling.... people would rather live in desert, earth quake filed land with yearly brush fires than live here. By the way... water and sewage rates are lower in Tucson Arizona than in Detroit. It's also lower in San Diego and in Las Vegas.

[Gistok]

Republicans like creating majority-minority districts, because they concentrate Democratic votes in as few districts as possible. So my guess is when it all settles out there will be two Detroit-based, majority-black districts, with one of them extended out across Eight Mile to Southfield and Oak Park if necessary.

My guess for eliminating a district would be to consolidate the districts of Levin and Peters by extending Levin's district [[minus Southfield and Oak Park) through the Bloomfields [[Hills, Township, and West) and Birmingham to Pontiac. This sets up either a primary fight or Levin's retirement [[he'll be 81 before the next election).

Now if they want to go for a home run [[and they will if they can), the Republicans could try carving up Kildee's district, splitting Bay City, Saginaw, and Flint among the neighboring districts. Remember ten years ago when MI also lost one district, the Republicans eliminated three Dem districts and created two new Rep districts. The Republicans won the election, they have all of the power, and they'll take whatever they can get [[as would Democrats if they were in the same position).

I remember the reapportionment 10 years ago... Republicans did the reapportionment so that 2 Democratic districts... Ann Arbor's Lynn Rivers and downriver's John Dingell... would have to fight it out for the same district... of course Dingell won [[much to the disgust of Republicans).

Their reapportioning also had some unintended consequences... such as when Joe Knollenberg eventually got kick out of office because more blue voters were migrating into the 9th District.

[English]

I doubt the solid Red South and West will stay red states all the way until 2020. I have heard that Texas may shock us by going Blue within the next 10-15 years. The story in the South and West is in the demographics of the future, not in their historical trends.

[texorama]

I'm going to come in under the other guesses. There were massive population losses, not only in the neighborhoods that emptied but in the homeowner areas. I'm going with 846,000.

I am guessing, however, that Hamtramck's population has increased.

[maxx]

I'm wondering how it will all shake out when these Southwest and western states start running out of water.

http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/08...rou-29594.html
"... Over the last decade, the Southwest has suffered the sharpest temperature increase on the continent, declining late-season snowpack, loss of vegetation and rampant wildfires -- all while growing faster than any other region in the United States. Eight studies completed from 1991 to 2007 predict that climate change will reduce the snowpack runoff that feeds the Colorado River anywhere from 6 percent to 45 percent over the next half-century..."

[eastjohn]

http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/08...rou-29594.html
"... Over the last decade, the Southwest has suffered the sharpest temperature increase on the continent, declining late-season snowpack, loss of vegetation and rampant wildfires -- all while growing faster than any other region in the United States. Eight studies completed from 1991 to 2007 predict that climate change will reduce the snowpack runoff that feeds the Colorado River anywhere from 6 percent to 45 percent over the next half-century..."

So why does Detroit have higher water and sewage rates than Tucson Arizona?

[PaulieG63]

As a current resident of South Carolina, I can assure you that any additional seats picked up here [[ 1 as I understand it) will NOT be a good thing. Obama once made a remark...paraphrasing...that during difficult economic times, people tend to cling to their guns and religion. South Carolinians define that statement...on steriods...even in the best of times.
This is a low tax, low wage enviroment. Jim Demint is worshipped and compared favorably to South Carolina's all-time favorite son, Strom Thrurmond. Generally speaking, the political lines are drwn by race, with few blacks voting Republican and no whites voting Democratic [[unless they're from the north.) They're all about that o'le timey religion, NASCAR and waving the flag...when your their not wrapping themselves in it. Political thought that dosen't run sharply to the right, diversity of thought/opinion and pretty much any and all goverment programs [[excluding of course the Department of Defense) not so much.

I've spent almost 9 years in this stifling and regressive culture. Fortunately, my days here are numbered. Unfortunately, I couldn't have left sooner, like BEFORE the census...much. much, much before in fact.

[Gistok]

So why does Detroit have higher water and sewage rates than Tucson Arizona?

eastjohn.... I think that part of your answer [[and someone here will correct me if I'm wrong ).... is the name
John Feikens.

He's the federal judge who has been monitoring/controling/supervising... the Detroit water & sewage department... for what seems like decades.... I can't exactly give any specifics of how he's affected water/sewage rates [[not my area of expertise)... but one of my very knowledgeable cohorts on this forum may chime in with some specifics...

[Novine]

"So why does Detroit have higher water and sewage rates than Tucson Arizona?"

Assuming that's true and I don't know that it is, Detroit's water and sewer rates would be higher because of the age of Detroit's system. The need for massive capital investment to maintain an aging system has contributed to the costs of the system. Tucson's system likely isn't as old.

[dtrrman]

"So why does Detroit have higher water and sewage rates than Tucson Arizona?"

Assuming that's true and I don't know that it is, Detroit's water and sewer rates would be higher because of the age of Detroit's system. The need for massive capital investment to maintain an aging system has contributed to the costs of the system. Tucson's system likely isn't as old.

Graft and corruption wouldn't have anything to do with it?

[rid0617]

Paulie where in SC are you? I thought I was the only one stuck in this back woods hell hole

[rooms222]

Republicans like creating majority-minority districts, because they concentrate Democratic votes in as few districts as possible. So my guess is when it all settles out there will be two Detroit-based, majority-black districts, with one of them extended out across Eight Mile to Southfield and Oak Park if necessary.

My guess for eliminating a district would be to consolidate the districts of Levin and Peters by extending Levin's district [[minus Southfield and Oak Park) through the Bloomfields [[Hills, Township, and West) and Birmingham to Pontiac. This sets up either a primary fight or Levin's retirement [[he'll be 81 before the next election).

Now if they want to go for a home run [[and they will if they can), the Republicans could try carving up Kildee's district, splitting Bay City, Saginaw, and Flint among the neighboring districts. Remember ten years ago when MI also lost one district, the Republicans eliminated three Dem districts and created two new Rep districts. The Republicans won the election, they have all of the power, and they'll take whatever they can get [[as would Democrats if they were in the same position).

Republicans may like it, but it is Federal law [[or at least the court cases interpreting Federal law) that majority-minority districts must be maintained/created if at all realistically possible, so the two seats that are predominately from Detroit will remain and expand in size.


IIRC, there were three basic choices last time to expand the two Detroit seats to deal with population loss-

1) Add people from southern Oakland and Macomb which would track the population migration patterns out of Detroit.

2) Go west and add the inner ring suburbs like Redford and Dearborn Heights.

3) Go south and add downriver people.

Option 3 was chosen. Option 2 would have totally killed McCotter's district for the Republicans, so after some discussion it was not done although there was a lot of talk of it.

As to Option 1, there seemed a great resistance to crossing Eight mile road to add voters, even though it was perhaps the most logical choice, if you look to migration patterns. Perhaps the desire to dump Rivers and Dingell into the same Congressional district had an effect on where to expand the Detroit districts, but there seemed to be much stronger reasons than that to not cross Eight mile [[I lived in Redford at the time, so followed this closely). In the discussions and press reports, it was not even on the table in public. In fact, almost all the talk was that the Dearborn Hts./Redford/Livonia option was going to be taken, and a little mention of taking Dearborn/Inkster/Wayne with no mention of the other 2 options, including the one ultimately chosen.

The Kildee option sounds interesting, but it would be vulnerable to overreach in elections where the Republicans were weak. I think that is what happened to elect Gary Peters. The district he was in was only marginally Republican to begin with, migration patterns continued to weaken it for Republicans, and then Republicans had a bad year, and now it has a two term Democrat in it.